Wednesday, September 2, 2009

MVP - By the Numbers

Pythagoras Masters - Special to Cobb Times Herald

With the MVP debates raging in the Cobb World forums, The Times Herald asked noted mathematician Pythagoras Masters to break down the numbers to determine who should be taking home the hardware at the end of the season. Below is his formula for determining the Gross Production Average (GPA) of all of the top contenders for the awards, plus many other players who you might recognize. Included after all of the mathematical jargon is the GPA list, where you can see if your favorite makes the grade.

Adjusted OPS (OPS+)

OPS+, Adjusted OPS, is a closely related statistic. OPS+ is OPS adjusted for the park and the league in which the player played, but not for fielding position. An OPS+ of 100 is defined to be the league average. An OPS+ of 150 or more is excellent and 125 very good, while an OPS+ of 75 or below is poor.



The basic formula for OPS+ is







where *lgOBP is the park adjusted (Average) OBP of the league and *lgSLG is the park adjusted (Average) SLG of the league.



A common misconception is that OPS+ closely matches the ratio of a player's OPS to that of the league. In fact, due to the additive nature of the two components in OPS+, a player with an OBP and SLG both 50% better than league average in those metrics will have an OPS+ of 200 (twice the league average OPS+) while still having an OPS that is only 50% better than the average OPS of the league.



Gross Production Average

Gross Production Average or GPA is a baseball statistic created in 2003 by Aaron Gleeman as a refinement of On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS).[1] GPA attempts to solve two frequently cited problems with OPS. First, OPS gives equal weight to its two components, On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG). In fact, OBP contributes significantly more to scoring runs than SLG does. Sabermetricians have calculated that OBP is about 80% more valuable than SLG. A second problem with OPS is that it generates numbers on a scale unfamiliar to most baseball fans. For all the problems with traditional stats like batting average (AVG), baseball fans immediately know that a player batting .365 is significantly better than average, while a player batting .167 is significantly below average. But many fans don't immediately know how good a player with a 1.013 OPS is.



The basic formula for GPA is:





Unlike OPS, this formula both gives proper relative weight to its two component statistics and generates a number that falls on a scale similar to the familiar batting average scale.

Player AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ GPA
Pedro Franco 0.363 0.480 0.635 1.115 184 0.375
Norm Gibson 0.339 0.409 0.712 1.122 181 0.362
Chipper Harper 0.349 0.418 0.680 1.098 176 0.358
Quilvio Suarez 0.326 0.435 0.616 1.052 167 0.350
Paul Jung 0.313 0.417 0.632 1.049 165 0.346
Rodney Toombs 0.347 0.417 0.612 1.029 160 0.341
Charles Reese 0.310 0.413 0.618 1.031 161 0.340
Josh Price 0.331 0.435 0.557 0.992 153 0.335
Jamie Beimel 0.328 0.430 0.549 0.980 150 0.331
Louie Tarraga 0.324 0.388 0.616 1.004 153 0.329
Jimmie Julio 0.356 0.430 0.539 0.969 148 0.328
Kory Arnold 0.309 0.380 0.615 0.995 150 0.325
Guillermo Segui 0.333 0.407 0.564 0.971 147 0.324
Benji Ordonez 0.314 0.426 0.521 0.947 143 0.322
Joseph Pan 0.305 0.360 0.624 0.984 146 0.318
Jeremy Hernandez 0.295 0.379 0.588 0.967 144 0.318
Ernest McConnell 0.313 0.378 0.587 0.966 143 0.317
Joseph Funaki 0.282 0.331 0.670 1.001 148 0.316
Walter Stewart 0.309 0.373 0.594 0.967 143 0.316
Milt Serafini 0.301 0.415 0.518 0.933 139 0.316
Craig Lake 0.322 0.417 0.503 0.920 136 0.313
Kenny Blair 0.289 0.362 0.601 0.963 142 0.313
Shawon Lee 0.292 0.381 0.565 0.946 139 0.313
Lyle Crudale 0.308 0.398 0.533 0.932 137 0.312
Domingo Pelaez 0.294 0.357 0.605 0.962 141 0.312
Sam Lockwood 0.293 0.401 0.525 0.926 136 0.312
Hades Booker 0.309 0.381 0.560 0.941 138 0.311
Gregg Young 0.305 0.387 0.542 0.929 136 0.310
Lloyd Ross 0.340 0.440 0.442 0.882 129 0.309
Jim Henley 0.333 0.388 0.534 0.921 134 0.308
Ralph Woods 0.303 0.382 0.542 0.925 134 0.307
Lawrence Shave 0.295 0.362 0.576 0.938 136 0.307
Emmanuel Castillo 0.303 0.394 0.518 0.912 132 0.307
Michael Ong 0.319 0.370 0.561 0.931 135 0.307
Jesus Campos 0.279 0.359 0.568 0.927 133 0.304
Jose Barrios 0.288 0.384 0.519 0.903 130 0.303
Javier Rios 0.291 0.377 0.531 0.908 130 0.302
Roger Sanders 0.304 0.366 0.549 0.914 131 0.302
Kip Zeile 0.290 0.359 0.559 0.919 131 0.301
Ruben Ortega 0.273 0.345 0.580 0.924 132 0.300
Jose Ordaz 0.298 0.397 0.481 0.878 125 0.299
Angel Vazquez 0.290 0.381 0.503 0.883 125 0.297
Nick Weaver 0.272 0.341 0.574 0.915 130 0.297
Bosco Simon 0.280 0.382 0.499 0.881 125 0.297
Darryl Young 0.261 0.374 0.511 0.886 125 0.296
Jim Green 0.321 0.387 0.486 0.872 123 0.296
Vernon Jones 0.294 0.383 0.493 0.876 124 0.296
Tony Arnold 0.279 0.387 0.479 0.866 122 0.294
Garret Wells 0.293 0.381 0.490 0.870 122 0.294
Guillermo Sanchez 0.247 0.349 0.547 0.896 126 0.294
Johnny Rowe 0.292 0.355 0.535 0.890 125 0.294
R.J. Cubillan 0.279 0.361 0.521 0.882 123 0.293
Derrick Brumbaugh 0.306 0.373 0.499 0.872 122 0.293
Geronimo Liriano 0.309 0.370 0.504 0.874 122 0.293
Spud Upshaw 0.302 0.380 0.486 0.866 121 0.293
Darrell Kendall 0.283 0.359 0.524 0.883 123 0.292
Corey Green 0.281 0.341 0.554 0.895 125 0.292
Anthony Tabaka 0.271 0.359 0.521 0.880 123 0.292
Enrique Guardado 0.287 0.370 0.501 0.871 122 0.292
Jung Lee 0.311 0.374 0.492 0.867 121 0.291
Vic Flores 0.272 0.351 0.532 0.883 123 0.291
Javier Alvarez 0.294 0.388 0.462 0.851 118 0.290
Pedro Chavez 0.294 0.345 0.536 0.881 122 0.289
Sal Fox 0.304 0.377 0.477 0.853 118 0.289
Omar Rosado 0.292 0.372 0.484 0.856 118 0.288
Ben Harris 0.275 0.379 0.470 0.849 117 0.288
Jesus Henriquez 0.297 0.353 0.514 0.868 120 0.287
Frank Hutchinson 0.269 0.351 0.517 0.868 120 0.287
Ira Riggs 0.286 0.350 0.518 0.868 120 0.287
Benny Pineda 0.323 0.383 0.458 0.841 116 0.287
Wayne Wilson 0.273 0.333 0.542 0.875 120 0.285
Vladimir Fernandez 0.301 0.360 0.491 0.850 116 0.285
Ron Leon 0.285 0.351 0.507 0.858 117 0.285
Carlton Nelson 0.286 0.347 0.512 0.860 117 0.284
Abraham Traynor 0.269 0.389 0.436 0.824 112 0.284
Carl Saturria 0.313 0.365 0.479 0.845 115 0.284
Ignacio Lopez 0.298 0.358 0.489 0.846 115 0.283
Charley Porter 0.296 0.350 0.502 0.852 116 0.283
Harry Alfonseca 0.291 0.348 0.505 0.853 116 0.283
Rico Estrada 0.287 0.343 0.511 0.855 116 0.282
Brandon Miller 0.283 0.359 0.482 0.842 114 0.282
Victor Mercado 0.249 0.374 0.454 0.827 112 0.282
Brett O'Keefe 0.311 0.348 0.500 0.848 115 0.282
Tom Pettitte 0.302 0.377 0.446 0.824 111 0.281
Brook Colin 0.257 0.334 0.521 0.855 116 0.281
Marino Sierra 0.291 0.366 0.463 0.829 112 0.280
Stewart DiSarcina 0.312 0.377 0.443 0.821 111 0.280
Tony Martinez 0.290 0.412 0.380 0.792 107 0.280
Ramon Sasaki 0.307 0.365 0.464 0.829 112 0.280
Yamid Mairena 0.295 0.356 0.479 0.836 113 0.280
Sarma O'Connor 0.268 0.339 0.506 0.845 114 0.279
Peter Mullin 0.287 0.380 0.432 0.812 109 0.279
Omar DaSilva 0.249 0.349 0.487 0.836 112 0.279
Bill Norton 0.284 0.345 0.494 0.839 113 0.279
Benji Molina 0.277 0.367 0.454 0.821 110 0.279
Mike Wilson 0.268 0.347 0.489 0.835 112 0.278
Jose Cervantes 0.252 0.318 0.541 0.859 115 0.278
Luis Nunez 0.286 0.348 0.486 0.834 112 0.278
Esteban Mieses 0.254 0.338 0.503 0.840 113 0.278
Armando Chavez 0.293 0.351 0.479 0.830 111 0.278
Vinny Jang 0.264 0.338 0.501 0.840 112 0.277
Richard Nakajima 0.281 0.337 0.502 0.839 112 0.277
Ajax Worley 0.262 0.333 0.509 0.841 113 0.277
Raymond Adams 0.261 0.343 0.491 0.834 111 0.277
Justin Snopek 0.274 0.341 0.493 0.834 111 0.277
Juan Sierra 0.286 0.361 0.457 0.818 109 0.277
Pedro Rivera 0.270 0.363 0.451 0.813 108 0.276
Francis Kent 0.271 0.340 0.492 0.832 111 0.276
Kelvim Harris 0.274 0.338 0.495 0.833 111 0.276
Dick Wolf 0.288 0.363 0.450 0.813 108 0.276
Wayne Burns 0.292 0.341 0.489 0.831 110 0.276
Al Rosario 0.307 0.353 0.468 0.821 109 0.276
Clay Henry 0.294 0.359 0.453 0.812 107 0.275
Trenidad Pelaez 0.281 0.346 0.474 0.821 108 0.274
Hawk Gutierrez 0.288 0.342 0.481 0.823 109 0.274
Josh Davis 0.293 0.348 0.469 0.817 108 0.274
Harry Rios 0.290 0.356 0.453 0.809 107 0.273
James Cole 0.279 0.362 0.436 0.798 105 0.272
Al Restovich 0.284 0.342 0.471 0.813 107 0.272
Frank Abbey 0.253 0.307 0.533 0.840 110 0.271
John McGowan 0.278 0.333 0.486 0.819 107 0.271
Mitchell Marshall 0.274 0.357 0.442 0.800 104 0.271
Alex Presley 0.272 0.328 0.494 0.821 108 0.271
Brad Mann 0.248 0.321 0.506 0.826 108 0.271
Goose Benes 0.309 0.363 0.430 0.792 104 0.271
Victor Johnson 0.270 0.330 0.487 0.817 107 0.270
Ryan Saberhagen 0.265 0.325 0.493 0.817 107 0.270
Ken Puffer 0.287 0.346 0.455 0.801 104 0.269
Roosevelt Ingram 0.261 0.341 0.462 0.802 104 0.269
Phil Maddux 0.300 0.351 0.444 0.795 103 0.269
Luke Henley 0.286 0.353 0.434 0.787 101 0.267
Omar Lewis 0.304 0.346 0.446 0.792 102 0.267
Patrick Stanton 0.270 0.343 0.451 0.794 102 0.267
Wascar Lopez 0.288 0.336 0.464 0.800 103 0.267
Wilfredo Henriquez 0.280 0.351 0.436 0.786 101 0.267
Tanner Durham 0.261 0.340 0.455 0.795 102 0.267
J.P. Wilfredo 0.278 0.351 0.432 0.783 100 0.266
Felix Masato 0.260 0.340 0.450 0.790 101 0.266
Apollo Houston 0.299 0.369 0.397 0.766 98 0.265
Steven Grilli 0.276 0.326 0.473 0.798 102 0.265
Patrick Lamb 0.258 0.308 0.503 0.811 104 0.264
Miguel Matos 0.309 0.372 0.386 0.759 96 0.264
Thomas Hill 0.270 0.342 0.439 0.781 99 0.264
Curt Fox 0.283 0.339 0.444 0.783 100 0.264
Tony Cruz 0.286 0.351 0.421 0.772 98 0.263
Ira Black 0.284 0.369 0.389 0.757 96 0.263
Jose Gandarillas 0.271 0.356 0.409 0.765 97 0.262
Dorian Woolf 0.246 0.322 0.468 0.791 100 0.262
Mark Hocking 0.272 0.333 0.448 0.781 99 0.262
Sammy Bennett 0.235 0.304 0.498 0.802 102 0.261
Todd Hemphill 0.304 0.354 0.406 0.760 95 0.261
Brace Davey 0.220 0.313 0.479 0.791 100 0.261
Charley Morton 0.266 0.366 0.380 0.747 93 0.260
Tito Sisco 0.280 0.352 0.400 0.752 94 0.258
Carl Alexander 0.270 0.350 0.399 0.749 93 0.257
Rob Leonard 0.285 0.354 0.391 0.745 92 0.257
Luis Espinoza 0.277 0.351 0.396 0.747 92 0.257
Trent Billingsley 0.265 0.363 0.374 0.737 91 0.257
Lewis Allen 0.268 0.325 0.441 0.766 95 0.257
Alex Liriano 0.257 0.328 0.435 0.763 94 0.256
Darrin Barkley 0.284 0.357 0.382 0.739 91 0.256
Bo Rhodes 0.261 0.324 0.440 0.765 94 0.256
Frank Hartgraves 0.267 0.337 0.415 0.752 93 0.255
Vladimir Espinosa 0.266 0.337 0.415 0.751 93 0.255
Larry Gant 0.249 0.326 0.431 0.757 93 0.254
Louie Lee 0.269 0.346 0.394 0.740 90 0.254
Raul Palacios 0.290 0.346 0.394 0.740 90 0.254
Darryl Bates 0.249 0.333 0.416 0.750 92 0.254
Erubiel Bonilla 0.269 0.324 0.432 0.756 93 0.254
Alex Brantley 0.230 0.296 0.480 0.776 95 0.253
Ken Daniels 0.268 0.336 0.402 0.738 89 0.252
Buck Fuller 0.249 0.310 0.448 0.757 92 0.252
Harpo Hurst 0.274 0.333 0.399 0.732 88 0.250
Steven Clayton 0.225 0.304 0.447 0.750 90 0.249
Luis Mercado 0.264 0.340 0.380 0.720 85 0.248
Santiago Matos 0.247 0.291 0.468 0.759 91 0.248
John Helms 0.292 0.314 0.428 0.741 88 0.248
Arnold Fitzgerald 0.235 0.333 0.389 0.723 85 0.247
David Kwon 0.262 0.320 0.410 0.730 86 0.247
Alexander Erickson 0.254 0.306 0.432 0.738 87 0.246
Alex Guzman 0.293 0.357 0.340 0.698 81 0.246
Gregg Durbin 0.261 0.316 0.413 0.729 86 0.245
Raymond Sanford 0.256 0.309 0.422 0.731 86 0.245
Greg Tyson 0.231 0.305 0.424 0.730 85 0.243
Alfredo Cruz 0.253 0.315 0.402 0.717 83 0.242
Dickie Huff 0.295 0.350 0.338 0.688 79 0.242
James Lowry 0.228 0.332 0.367 0.698 80 0.241
Norm Ripken 0.274 0.323 0.379 0.702 80 0.240
Dude Barry 0.261 0.326 0.373 0.699 80 0.240
Joel Valentin 0.255 0.341 0.346 0.688 78 0.240
Tomas Diaz 0.249 0.306 0.401 0.706 80 0.238
Marc Reagan 0.266 0.326 0.363 0.690 78 0.237
William Chang 0.251 0.322 0.367 0.689 77 0.236
Larry Sabel 0.238 0.307 0.389 0.696 78 0.235
Ted O'Donnell 0.271 0.338 0.333 0.671 74 0.235
Tomas Lee 0.252 0.308 0.386 0.693 77 0.235
Danny Browning 0.272 0.328 0.350 0.678 75 0.235
Napoleon Scott 0.265 0.327 0.344 0.671 74 0.233
Rico Cruz 0.248 0.303 0.385 0.689 76 0.233
Theodore Starr 0.268 0.296 0.392 0.688 75 0.231
Chipper Woods 0.254 0.320 0.346 0.666 72 0.231
John Simpson 0.260 0.321 0.333 0.654 69 0.228
Dennis Ashby 0.265 0.283 0.400 0.682 73 0.227
Kiko Wall 0.242 0.302 0.361 0.662 70 0.226
Emmanuel Contreras 0.229 0.282 0.389 0.672 71 0.224
Tim Smith 0.229 0.288 0.374 0.662 69 0.223
Alan Peterson 0.232 0.298 0.352 0.650 67 0.222
Willie Kotsay 0.249 0.303 0.340 0.643 66 0.221
Erv Castillo 0.234 0.295 0.351 0.646 66 0.221
Donte Shelby 0.228 0.297 0.343 0.640 65 0.219
Ismael Delgado 0.211 0.301 0.334 0.636 64 0.219
Andres Liriano 0.239 0.323 0.290 0.613 60 0.218
Paul Roth 0.264 0.306 0.300 0.606 57 0.213
Gerald Murata 0.220 0.275 0.349 0.623 59 0.211
Albert Burnett 0.248 0.331 0.234 0.400 50 0.207
Fernando Belliard 0.233 0.275 0.324 0.598 54 0.205
D'Angelo Romero 0.245 0.292 0.288 0.579 51 0.203

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Season 13 Draft Recap - Sioux Falls through Wichita

Matty Wilkerson
Sioux Falls
Corn Cleats
Age: 18B/T: S/R
Born: Cherokee, KS
Position(s): P (P)
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Sioux Falls Corn Cleats
--The Corn Cleats settled for signing supplemental round pick SP Matty Wilkerson as they didn't have the 7+ million dollars desired by their top pick, RP Phillip Holt. Wilkerson is probably a long relief prospect, as his splits and control are only average, but his pitch selection is very impressive, with four pitches rated over 70, and he has incredible stamina. Supplemental pick Esteban Alarcon might make the majors as a 3B backup, but the rest of the Corn Cleats draft are minor league lifers.
Grade: C-

Joe Hardy
Syracuse
Beagles
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Pipersville, PA
Position(s): C
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Syracuse Beagles
--With the #32 pick in the draft the Beagles selected slugging C Joe Hardy. Hardy is adequate behind the plate defensively, and his hitting skills are slightly above average, but he really shines with his tremendous power. He should be a great backup to have on any ML team when he matures, with his ability to catch the ball and be a pinch hitting force. Supplemental pick 2B Randy Brown also has ML potential with great hitting skills for the position. The rest of the Beagles draft brought on board some very solid minor league players. This was a pretty good draft for picking so late.
Grade: B

Darrell Gibbs
Tacoma
Jerry Gang
Age: 18B/T: S/R
Born: West Sacramento, CA
Position(s): P (SP2)
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Tacoma Jerry Gang
--With the #11 pick in the draft, the Jerry Gang selected SP Darrell Gibbs. Gibbs is a hard throwing righty with superb control, above average splits, good GB/FB ratio, and a capable pitch selection. He should slot to a #2-4 starter in the bigs when he is fully developed. 2nd round pick CF Matt Katou is a great defensive player, but probably not good enough with the stick to stick in the majors. 3rd round pick RP Benji Kirkland is a good minor leaguer who might get a taste of the majors as an injury replacement. The rest of the top picks for Tacoma are strictly minor league. This was a solid but not spectacular draft.
Grade: B

Russell Walker
Toronto
Blue Jays
Age: 19B/T: R/R
Born: Woodstock, VT
Position(s): P (SP6)
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Toronto Blue Jays
--With the #2 pick the Blue Jays pretty much had their choice of players, so they selected yet another future all star pitcher in SP Russell Walker. It's hard to find a fault with Walker, who has pretty much every key skill rating hit 80 or above, and has 4 good pitches. Add Walker to the already deep Toronto pitching in the farm system and you have a formidable rotation in the making. Supplemental pick RP Wolf Restovich is a nice ML prospect as well, and should be a solid relief pitcher with an above average skill set in all key areas. The Blue Jays drafted a nice defensive C in 2nd round pick Malik Magee, who is as good as it gets defensively and has a very nice batting eye to boot. The rest of the Toronto draft brought on board some more minor league pitchers, but not much else. But three potential regulars in one draft is an accomplishment.
Grade: A

Cody Brantley
Trenton
Lions
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Framingham, MA
Position(s): P (ClA)
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Trenton Lions
--With the #3 overall pick in the draft, the Lions selected closer Cody Brantley, a very durable pitcher who should be able to pitch in nearly every game. In addition to having a rubber arm, Brantley has great control, excellent splits vs. righties, good GB/FB ratio, and two great pitches. Supplemental pick Roberto Santos is a potential backup at SS/3B. Supplemental pick SP Cy Jones is an intriguing prospect who might make the majors due to his superior control but might be a flop thanks to his splits vs. righties. The rest of the Trenton draft yielded some solid minor league players.
Grade: B

Harry Barnes
Vancouver
Grizzlies
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Norwalk, CA
Position(s): DH
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Vancouver Grizzlies
--With the #10 pick in the draft the Grizzlies selected DH Harry Barnes. Barnes has a monster of a bat, and should be a home run hitting machine with his impressive power, contact and splits. He would have been an awesome catcher too if he didn't have a PC of 6. But a bat like his is perfect on an American League team, and he should be an all star at the DH position once he hits the majors. Supplemental pick RF Bob McNeil is a good hitting player who has great contact skills at the plate, and should make the majors at some point. 2nd round pick Matt White could make the majors as well thanks to his nice glove. After him the draft devolves into minor leaguers.
Grade: B+

Tim Logan
Washington D.C.
Momentum
Age: 22B/T: R/R
Born: Tahlequah, OK
Position(s): P (SuA)
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Washington D.C. Momentum
--The top pick for the Momentum, RP Rob Greenwood, has thus far refused to sign with the team, as college is still an option for him. Never mind that most college students would look at 2.7 million dollars and take it in a heartbeat. That leaves 2nd round pick SP as DC's top guy, and he really isn't anything special, just a typical RP who might make it out of the minors to do some setup duty for a few seasons before he retires. 3rd round pick Jack Ramirez could be a ML long relief guy and spot starter, but nothing more than that. Otherwise it's all minor league in the Washington draft.
Grade: D

Curt Allen
Wichita
Wankers
Age: 21B/T: L/R
Born: Pomeroy, OH
Position(s): DH/C
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Wichita Wankers
--With the #24 pick in the draft the Wankers selected Curt Allen, the best hitting catcher in the draft. He has impressive skills at the plate, and should be a .300/30HR/100RBI guy in the bigs every season. The only problem is he can't catch, as his pitch calling skills could easily be equaled by a Rhesus Macaque. But he can hit, and could be shifted over to 1B in the NL, or be a stellar DH in the AL. Supplemental pick RP Nigel Rivers should be a nice setup man with his control, and Supplemental pick 2B John Kirby has the splits and batting eye to be a regular as well. The rest of the draft for Wichita brought on board some very solid minor league players who all might see ML time if the circumstances are right. There were no stars in this draft for Wichita, but it was very deep.
Grade: B

Season 13 Draft Recap - Montgomery through Richmond

Doyle Grey
Montgomery
Burns
Age: 20B/T: L/L
Born: International Falls, MN
Position(s): RF
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Montgomery Burns
--The Burns used the #4 pick on RF Doyle Grey, who in addition to enjoying Earl Grey tea, is a beast of a hitter at the plate. Grey has a nearly perfect contact/splits combo, with decent power and a good batting eye. He should hit for high average with 30+ HR's per year in the majors, and is an above average defensive RF. The four other top picks for the Burns are all potential major league players, thanks to their defensive skills, especially 3rd round pick SS Mark Rudolph. This was a very solid draft.
Grade: A-

Morris Coomer
Nashville
Rebel Riders
Age: 18B/T: S/L
Born: Brigham City, UT
Position(s): RF
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Nashville Rebel Riders
--The Rebel Riders selected power hitting RF Morris Coomer with the #19 pick in the draft. Coomer has trouble hitting a ball off a tee, but Nashville didn't select him for that, they chose him for his clubbing power, great splits, and sixth sense that helps him overcome his ability to make good contact on the ball. He is also a great baserunner, and should draw plenty of walks. Seeing as how RF is a power position, he definitely has a solid ML future. Supplemental round pick SS Doug Edwards was a nice pickup as well, with what might be the best glove in the draft, and pretty nice splits vs. left handed pitching. He should see ML time in the future as well. The Rebel Riders only other signed top prospect is a minor league quality pitcher, but the landing of two legitimate ML regulars late in a draft that befuddled many teams is a very nice accomplishment.
Grade: A-

Wilkin Pena
New York
Pick Pockets
Age: 19B/T: R/R
Born: Kenedy, TX
Position(s): P (ClA)
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New York Pick Pockets
--The Pick Pockets used the #14 pick in the draft on RP Wilkin Pena, a closer prospect with incredible splits, pitches, control, velocity and every other skill for the position save two. Those two lacking skills are stamina and durability, which means that Pena is probably only good for 10 pitches every three games, and maybe 30 innings in a season if they are lucky. Those 10 pitches will be great, but after that Pena needs his beauty sleep. Supplemental pick RP Bo Henderson has a nice future as a ML setup guy, but probably won't be an all star. NY's other top picks are all minor league fodder. The Pick Pockets grade would have been higher if Pena were able to pitch a bit more.
Grade: C+

Alex Kent
Omaha
Sluggers
Age: 18B/T: L/L
Born: Ashland, MO
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Omaha Sluggers
--The Sluggers took SP Alex Kent with the #38 pick in the supplemental round. Kent is a decent enough pitcher, with great control, slightly above average splits, and 3 good pitches. He should be a great long man in the majors. Supplemental pick Jake Guerrero is also a nice long relief prospect. Supplemental round pick CF Wilt Daily is a very nice CF prospect for where he was taken in the draft, with an exceptional glove and range, and better splits and batting eye than most ML CF prospects. The only other pick of note for Omaha is 3rd round selection SS Keith Alexander, who has a major league glove and great contact hitting skills, and should see ML time as a backup for sure. Considering where the Sluggers picked, getting 4 potential major league players was a draft well done.
Grade: B+

Stevie Rowan
Pawtucket
G-Maniacs
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Dixon, KY
Position(s): 2B
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Pawtucket G-Maniacs
--The G-Maniacs took CF Stevie Rowan with the #27 pick in the draft, scoring a very nice CF prospect with a great glove and solid hitting skills across the board. Rowan has the potential to be a ML starter at CF/2B for most teams in the league today. Supplemental pick SP Lewis Stanton will be a minor league workhorse, but doesn't have the stuff to make the big leagues. The same statement could be said of the next few Pawtucket picks as well, who are all above average pitchers for the minors, but probably not good enough for every day work on the ML squad. But picking up a starter at pick #27 is a nice grab.
Grade: B-

Philadelphia Cheese Steaks
--The Cheese Steaks only had a 4th and 5th round pick due to many free agent signings in the offseason. But they did manage to sign their picks, even if they will only be of help in the minor leagues. But they did better than Huntington, so that's something at least.
Grade: D-

Clarence Truby
Pittsburgh
SSP
Age: 20B/T: R/R
Born: Annapolis, MD
Position(s): 2B
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Pittsburgh SSP
--After the latest throwing in of the towel in Pittsburgh, the fans were getting restless. But the drafting of stud 2b prospect Clarence Truby at #12 in the draft helped abate some of those worries. Truby has the glove of a wizard, and great range as well. His bat is also refined, with excellent splits vs. righties, a great batting eye, and above average speed and base running skills. He's definitely a keeper. Supplemental pick RP Rick Browning is also ML capable once he matures, with nice splits, velocity, and pitch selection. Supplemental pick SS Bob Sutton has the potential to be a ML backup, but probably not a starter at the position. The rest of the SSP draft yielded an assortment of minor league regulars.
Grade: B+

Garland McMillan
Richmond
Cohibas
Age: 20B/T: S/L
Born: Simsbury, CT
Position(s): P (ClA)
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Richmond Cohibas
--With the #27 pick in the draft the Cohibas selected P Garland McMillan, a solid pitching prospect with good control, splits, pitch selection, and velocity. His stamina is only so-so, which may confine him to the bullpen, but he should see the majors in his career. The Cohibas other top picks yielded 3 minor league starters and one minor league SS, who will be good in the minors, but not really good enough to contribute at the big league level.
Grade: C

Season 13 Draft Recap - Honolulu through Louisville

Ralph Walsh
Honolulu
Harriers
Age: 22B/T: L/L
Born: Oxford, MI
Position(s): LF
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Honolulu Harriers
--The Harriers selected LF Ralph Walsh with the #9 pick in the draft. As you would expect for a top 10 pick, Walsh is an elite hitter and is probably the best power hitter in this years draft. With great contact, power, splits vs. righties, and above average speed and baserunning skills for a LF, Walsh is a definite stud in the making. The Harriers weren't so lucky with the #17 pick in the draft, where RP Lyle English refused to sign, robbing Honolulu of a decent setup man. Supplemental pick 1B Clinton Jones is a good hitter, but might not have enough power to man the 1B position, but still should make the bigs due to his bat. The only other top pick signed by the Harriers was 3rd round pick SP Denny Galliard, who is a potential long relief guy in the bigs but not much else. But grabbing a franchise hitter like Walsh was huge, and makes the draft a success.
Grade: B+

Huntington Hillbillies
--Thus far the Hillbillies haven't signed a single pick from the first five rounds, including 2 supplemental round picks. Whether the players asked for too much money or they just plain stink, the end result is the same.
Grade: F-

Michael Leonard
Iowa City
Corn Dogs
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Redford, MI
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Iowa City Corn Dogs
--The Corn Dogs had the #1 overall pick in the draft, and they took full advantage of it with the signing of SP Michael Leonard. Leonard projects to be an absolute beast of a pitcher, with the stamina and durability to pitch nearly 300 innings, and control, splits, velocity, and a pitch selection that will strike fear into opposing hitters. To put it bluntly, he's going to be damn good, and the thought of a Furio Kydd/Leonard tandem pitching at the same time is downright scary. The rest of the Hokies draft yielded some role players and minor leaguers, about what you would expect for where they were taken in the draft. But Leonard will be something special, that is a fact.
Grade: A

Jimmy Ellis
Jackson
Pollocks
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Riverside, CA
Position(s): 2B/CIF/OF/DH
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Jackson Pollocks
--The Pollocks took 2b/CF Jimmy Ellis with the #18 pick in the draft. Ellis is a contact hitter with good enough splits and batting eye to be respectable at the plate, and tremendous range and very nice glove in the field. His speed and base running abilities are also nearly unmatched in the draft. He's a health risk though, and might spend some time on the DL in his career. The Pollocks other top picks brought on board some very nice defensive players and a few minor league lifers. This wasn't a great draft for Jackson, but it certainly wasn't horrible either, falling solidly in the average category.
Grade: B-

J.R. McClain
Kansas City
Express
Age: 22B/T: S/R
Born: Louisville, NE
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Kansas City Express
--K.C. took SP J.R. McClain with the #7 pick in the draft, and were rewarded with a workhorse SP who can go very deep into games. McClain has three very good pitches, above average splits, and great control. He should definitely find a spot in the ML rotation when he is ready. The Express didn't sign any of their other top picks, leaving this a one man draft.
Grade: B-

Jesus Tabaka
Los Angeles
Leopards
Age: 19B/T: L/L
Born: Avon Lake, OH
Position(s): P (ClA)
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Los Angeles Leopards
--With the #6 pick in the draft L.A. took RP Jesus Tabaka. Tabaka has control projected as high as you could hope for, and great splits and pitches thrown with some heat. His big strength though will be the ability to use those skills for 3 innings every day, with his huge durability and near long relief capable stamina. Tabaka is truly a physical freak of nature. The Leopards other top picks are all minor league lifers, making this yet another one man draft.
Grade: B-

Nolan Payton
Las Vegas
Sinners
Age: 19B/T: L/L
Born: Jersey City, NJ
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Las Vegas Sinners
--With the #5 pick the Sinners selected their fans newest vice, SP Nolan Payton. Payton is a finesse pitcher in every sense of the word, with impeccable control, above average splits, perfect GB/FB skills, and five usable pitches. Especially tricky is his 4 seam fastball, which has put a hurting on hitters because it moves slower than a snail on flypaper. He should be a top of the rotation starter when he matures. Even though 2nd round pick CF Dave Joseph didn't sign, the Sinners still got two ML quality role players in 3B Justin Walters, who would be a great platoon player vs. lefties with his splits and power, and defensive SS Andres Sierra.
Grade: B+

Pedro Baez
Louisville
Dogs
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Scottsbluff, NE
Position(s): P (ClA)
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Louisville Dogs
--The Dogs selected RP Pedro Baez with the #8 pick in the draft. Baez is a traditional closer, with low stamina, high durability, great control and splits, excellent GB/FB ratio, high heat, and a sinker/slider combo that is devastating. The Dogs supplemental round pick CF Chance Klassen has a chance to be a ML backup, and the rest of Louisvilles top picks are all pretty decent minor leaguers, but not ML material. Not a bad draft by any stretch.
Grade: B

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Season 13 Draft Recap - Anaheim through Florida

Chuck Biscuits - Cobb Times Herald

This years draft was generally considered by many to be a giant pile of worthless prospects, but there were a few difference makers to be had for those who put a lot of money and time into draft preparations. Here is a team by team look to see who was successful, and who was not.

Trevor Collier
Anaheim
Sharks
Age: 21B/T: R/R
Born: Urbana, IL
Position(s): LF/1B/DH
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Anaheim Sharks
--The Sharks took LF Trevor Collier with the #25 pick in the draft. Collier is a great clubhouse guy with a funny sense of humor and is known for his pranks and jokes, but his hitting skills are only above average, and his glove is typical of what you would see for a LF. He might make it to the big leagues as a backup, but it's hard to see him as a starter for a team as talented in the OF as the Sharks. 2nd round pick C Sam Lee actually has a much brighter ML future than Collier, with above average catching skills, and is a very good hitter with an incredible batting eye vs. left handers. He should be a great platoon player. 3rd round pick Albie Barrett has great control but his inability to effectively pitch to righties will probably keep him in the minor leagues, along with the rest of the Sharks draft picks after him.
Grade: B

Kevin Singleton
Atlanta
Pitbulls
Age: 22B/T: L/L
Born: Kenedy, TX
Position(s): P (SuA)
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Atlanta Pitbulls
--RP Kevin Singleton was selected with the #22 pick by the Pitbulls, and is a finesse pitcher who is great at keeping the ball down. His control and pitches are good enough to offset his average splits and get him to the majors as a setup man. The same could be said of second round pick RP Alex Saturria, who has a very similar skill set to Singleton. 3rd and 4th round pick SS prospects Edwin Ward and Marv Sodowski both have major league gloves and minor league bats. The rest of the Pitbull draft is made up of minor leaguers. There were no stars here, but definitely some solid role players.
Grade: B-

Julius Olmos
Boston
Loggers
Age: 22B/T: S/R
Born: Utica, NY
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Boston Loggers
--The Loggers scored in a big way at the #13 pick with their selection of SP Julius Olmos, who looks to have all the skills needed to be a front of the rotation starter. Olmos has great control, pretty good splits, nice velocity, and an above average pitch selection. Supplemental pick Ernie Hamilton should also make the majors as a back end starter with his impeccable control and incredible pitch selection, which should offset his average splits. Pitchers Warren Lange and Vicente Benitez might see time in the bigs as bullpen guys. The rest of the Logger draft is nothing to write home about. But four pitchers who could see the majors in a draft as devoid of talent as this one is some nice work indeed.
Grade: A

Cliff Hooper
Chicago
Sabercats
Age: 18B/T: R/R
Born: Cincinnati, OH
Position(s): 3B/SS/RF
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Chicago Sabercats
--The Sabercats selected SS Cliff Hooper with the #16 pick in the draft. Hooper is one of those great stamina/durability guys who can play every day, but only in an average way. His glove is only just suited to SS work, and is probably better suited for 3B, and his bat is only average. He does have some power, but that is about it. All told he will be an ok backup, but probably shouldn't start. Supplemental pick RP Jody Harris was a pretty nice pickup, and has great control, velocity, pitches, and keeps the ball down as well as anyone in the game. His splits are pretty decent, so he should have a good future as a setup man in the majors. Supplemental pick CF Benny Kirwan should be a decent major leaguer as well, with good splits and power, and great range and a good glove. The rest of the Sabercats draft yielded fringe players or career minor leaguers.
Grade: B

Mark Belle
Columbus
HoundDogs
Age: 22B/T: L/R
Born: San Bernardino, CA
Position(s): SS/3B/2B/RF/CF/DH
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Columbus HoundDogs
--The HoundDogs used the #15 pick in the draft on SS Mark Belle. Belle has an excellent glove, and slightly above average hitting skills. He won't be an all star, but should be serviceable in the majors as a backup or utility man. 2nd round pick RP Torey Lee is a AAAA type who might make the majors as an injury replacement. 3rd round pick Allen Grossman was a steal though, with great RP skills and enough durability to pitch 30-50 innings in a season, he was a great find by the HoundDogs. Otherwise there wasn't much of note in the Columbus draft, not a horrible draft, but certainly not the best this season either.
Grade: C+

Mule Holmes
Cleveland
Steamers
Age: 19B/T: R/R
Born: Levis, QC
Position(s): P (SuA)
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Cleveland Steamers
--The Steamers continued their tendency to employ players named Mule (see Mule Parker on the ML squad), and selected RP Mule Holmes with the #28 pick in the draft. Holmes has very nice splits and superb control, 3 pitches, and nice velocity. The only concern is his durability, which in combination with his stamina might limit his contributions during the season. Supplemental pick Brett Gray is a fringe ML guy at best, and probably will spend most of his career in the minors. 2nd round pick C Warren Vernon is a defensive catcher with the ability to only play 60-70 games a year, and has a completely anemic bat. None of the other top picks of the Steamers signed, leaving this to be a pretty barren draft for Cleveland.
Grade: D+

Shea Pierre
Fargo
Fug Nuts
Age: 19B/T: S/R
Born: Lake Wales, FL
Position(s): 2B
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Fargo Fug Nuts
--The Fug Nuts took CF/2B Shea Pierre with the #31 pick in the draft. Pierre is pretty much what you would expect for a player taken at that position, pretty much average across the board and likely to live life as a ML backup. Supplemental pick RF Sparky Price is a nice contact hitter and should make the majors at some point. Supplemental pick SS John Lowery has an awesome glove, and can hit just enough to justify a spot in the majors, and could start for an NL team in the future. 2nd round pick CF Russell O'Toole is a nice defensive CF with some speed, and could be a ML backup. After that the Fargo draft is pretty much role players and minor leaguers, but this wasn't a bad draft by any stretch for the Fug Nuts.
Grade: B-

Bronson Michaels
Florida
Almendares
Age: 19B/T: L/L
Born: Stuart, IA
Position(s): LF
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Florida Almendares
--The Almendares first round pick, RP Brant Ford, is currently on the fence about signing with Florida, as he has a lucrative hockey future to consider as well. That leaves the highest signed pick honors to Bronson Michaels, a 2nd rounder who is a slap hitting LF with good skills vs. lefties. His abilities vs. righties leaves something to be desired, but he should see platoon duty in the majors at some point. The rest of Florida's top picks are relief pitchers who are pretty much career minor leaguers, with major stamina issues. If Ford signs this grade goes up a bit, but right now it is a one player draft for Florida.
Grade: D+