Sunday, January 18, 2009

Scwibremetric Projections - Season 11

Ladies and gentlemen and peio,
The time has come unveil the first batch of projections from the prestigious Society for Cobb World Imaginary Baseball Research (SCWIBR). Three years ago, when the SCWIBR was founded, they announced their intention to perform research and analysis in an attempt to provide objective, quantitative methods to accurately predict the performance of individual players and teams. Unfortunately, until recently, the SCWIBR team seemed more interested in throwing poop than performing any real work. However, SCWIBR installed new leadership one month ago and has started the innovative "banana incentive" program to motivate their team. Born out of fresh motivation, here are your Season 11 Scwibremetric projections.

These are the flat team ratings. This only takes the ratings of the players on each team into account and uses those to predict their ability to score and prevent runs.

Team Run
Scoring
Run
Prevent.
TOTAL
Syracuse 65.1 68.7 133.8
Omaha 66.0 67.0 133.0
Fargo 66.2 66.2 132.4
Pawtucket 61.0 70.1 131.1
Huntington 66.2 63.9 130.1
Sioux Falls 64.9 65.1 130.0
Scranton 65.8 63.6 129.4
Wichita 64.2 65.1 129.3
Cleveland 64.8 64.5 129.3
Washington D.C. 62.0 66.1 128.1
Anaheim 63.0 64.9 127.9
Mexico City 59.9 67.1 127.0
St. Louis 59.4 66.6 126.0
Atlanta 61.3 64.2 125.5
Helena 61.8 63.6 125.5
Pittsburgh 62.0 62.8 124.9
Nashville 59.7 65.1 124.8
Richmond 64.3 60.4 124.6
Detroit 59.5 63.5 123.0
New York 59.5 63.3 122.9
Vancouver 57.7 64.8 122.5
Chicago 57.8 63.5 121.2
Jackson 58.8 60.9 119.7
Montgomery 58.4 61.2 119.6
Tacoma 56.7 62.1 118.8
Charlotte 57.6 60.6 118.3
Trenton 57.3 60.3 117.6
Honolulu 55.0 60.2 115.2
Salem 55.9 59.0 114.9
Kansas City 50.3 62.7 113.0
Iowa City 54.1 57.0 111.1
Toronto 54.9 56.2 111.1

The flat ratings shown above were then used along with each team's playing schedule to project out the number of runs they will score and give up this season. Those totals were used to calculate their expected winning percentage and win totals. These are the projected results, by division.

AL North



Exp

Team RS RA Pct W L
Pawtucket 868 608 0.671 109 53
Detroit 818 802 0.510 83 79
Chicago 775 805 0.481 78 84
Toronto 691 1021 0.314 51 111

AL East



Exp


Team RS RA Pct W L
Cleveland 950 764 0.607 98 64
Scranton 974 788 0.604 98 64
Washington D.C. 885 724 0.599 97 65
Pittsburgh 879 816 0.537 87 75

AL South



Exp


Team RS RA Pct W L
Mexico City 844 697 0.595 96 66
Nashville 836 755 0.551 89 73
Charlotte 776 886 0.434 70 92
Kansas City 595 837 0.335 54 108

AL West



Exp

Team RS RA Pct W L
Anaheim 920 748 0.602 98 64
Helena 889 785 0.562 91 71
Vancouver 787 759 0.518 84 78
Tacoma 755 836 0.449 73 89

NL North



Exp


Team RS RA Pct W L
Fargo 1021 746 0.652 106 56
Sioux Falls 985 781 0.614 99 63
New York 845 841 0.503 81 81
Trenton 783 937 0.411 67 95


NL East



Exp

Team RS RA Pct W L
Syracuse 998 673 0.687 111 51
Wichita 968 782 0.605 98 64
St. Louis 848 744 0.565 92 70
Atlanta 891 812 0.546 89 73


NL South



Exp

Team RS RA Pct W L
Huntington 1019 803 0.617 100 62
Richmond 961 909 0.528 85 77
Jackson 823 903 0.454 74 88
Montgomery 812 894 0.452 73 89


NL West



Exp

Team RS RA Pct W L
Omaha 1019 717 0.669 108 54
Honolulu 725 934 0.376 61 101
Salem 746 969 0.372 60 102
Iowa City 696 1032 0.313 51 111


Based on these projected win totals, these would be your playoff qualifiers.

American League
1. Pawtucket (109 wins)
2. Cleveland (98 wins)
3. Anaheim (98 wins)
4. Mexico City (96 wins)
5. Scranton (98 wins)
6. Helena (91 wins)

National League
1. Syracuse (111 wins)
2. Omaha (108 wins)
3. Fargo (106 wins)
4. Huntington (100 wins)
5. Sioux Falls (100 wins)
6. Wichita (98 wins)

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