Thursday, December 18, 2008

Wichita Willis's Team Win Projections

Wichita Willis - Special to the Cobb Times Herald

Wichita Willis has put together a spreadsheet that takes the franchise rankings and uses those team averages to evaluate each teams ability to score and prevent runs. Total team ratings were calculated with extra weight on the starting lineups over the bench and the starting rotation over the bullpen. Then, each rating attribute was given a weight with respect to its contribution to either run scoring or prevention. The weighted average for offensive categories of the position players was used to come up with a run scoring rating. And the weighted averages for defensive/fielding categories of the position players and the pitching categories of the pitchers were combined to come up with the run prevention rating. By adding those two values together, I come up with an overall team rating. That team rating had a 0.91 correlation with the actual expected win percentages of the teams. I took that overall team rating and used it to calculate a projected win total for each team.

Here are the ratings (based on the current rosters) and the projected wins for each team.

Team Run
Scoring
Run
Prevention
TOTAL Proj.
Wins
Syracuse 65.6 67.7 133.3 113
Omaha 65.9 67.4 133.2 113
Pawtucket 61.3 71.8 133.1 112
Fargo 62.1 69.2 131.3 107
Wichita 63.8 65.9 129.7 103
Sioux Falls 63.5 66.0 129.5 102
Scranton 63.6 64.5 128.2 98
St. Louis 62.0 65.2 127.2 95
New York (AL) 62.9 63.6 126.5 94
Anaheim 61.3 65.2 126.4 93
Cleveland 61.5 63.3 124.8 89
Atlanta 62.0 62.7 124.8 89
Nashville 58.5 65.9 124.4 87
Helena 59.4 64.1 123.6 85
Louisville 61.1 62.4 123.5 85
Huntington 61.2 60.8 122.1 81
Pittsburgh 59.2 62.4 121.6 80
Chicago 58.6 61.6 120.2 75
Richmond 58.5 61.3 119.8 74
New York (NL) 57.5 62.0 119.5 73
Augusta 60.0 59.2 119.2 72
Mexico City 53.9 65.2 119.0 72
Vancouver 53.1 65.0 118.1 70
Charlotte 56.2 61.5 117.7 68
Toledo 56.7 60.5 117.2 67
Tacoma 53.9 62.9 116.8 66
Salem 57.7 59.1 116.8 66
Kansas City 54.3 60.9 115.2 61
Jackson 56.3 58.2 114.5 59
Iowa City 54.5 59.2 113.7 57
Toronto 56.2 55.9 112.1 52
Honolulu 56.2 53.8 110.1 46



There are two items that are not considered in these ratings and, therefore, may cause the results to be slightly skewed. The Pitch Calling rating is not used in the calculations. I would expect that this would have a moderate impact on the run prevention numbers. Also, I believe the DH is weighted equally for NL teams versus AL teams. That will skew the projections a bit.